The 2014 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: Penn State ESSC's Prediction Successful

Now that the 2014 North Atlantic hurricane season is over, ESSC scientist Michael E. Mann, alumnus Michael Kozar, and researcher Sonya Miller are assessing their successful total named storm prediction made in May 2014.

The prediction was for 9.3 +/- 3.0 total named tropical cyclones, which corresponds to a range between 6 and 12 storms with a best estimate of 9 named storms. The actual number of named storms in 2014 was 8. This prediction was made using the statistical model of Kozar et al. (2012, see PDF here). This statistical model builds upon the past work of Sabbatelli and Mann (2007, see PDF here) by considering a larger number of climate predictors and including corrections for the historical undercount of events (see footnotes).

This season's win adds to the streak of successful predictions over the past several years.

The 2015 North Atlantic hurricane season prediction will be posted by mid-May 2015.

Forecasts and Verification:

Year (click to see forecast)
Prediction
Best Guess
Range
Actual Count
2007 n/a 15 n/a 15
2009 11.5 +/- 3.4 12 8-15 (6-13 if El Niño) 9
2010 23.4 +/- 4.8 23 19-28 19
2011 16.25 +/- 4.0 16 12-20 19
2012 11.2 +/- 3.3 11 8-15 19
2013 16.0 +/- 4.0 16 12-20 14
2014 9.3 +/- 3.0 9 6-12 8

References:       
Kozar, M.E., Mann, M.E., Camargo, S.J., Kossin, J.P., Evans, J.L., 2012: Stratified statistical models of North Atlantic basin-wide and regional tropical cyclone counts, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D18103, doi:10.1029/2011JD017170.

Mann, M.E., Sabbatelli, T.A., Neu, U., 2007: Evidence for a Modest Undercount Bias in Early Historical Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Counts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L22707, doi:10.1029/2007GL031781.

Sabbatelli, T.A., Mann, M.E., 2007: The Influence of Climate State Variables on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Occurrence Rates, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D17114, doi: 10.1029/2007JD008385.

Vecchi, G.A., Knutson, T.R., 2008: On Estimates of Historical North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity, J.Climate, 21, 3580-3600, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2178.

Footnotes:

The tropical cyclone series was corrected based on an estimated historical undercount taken from Vecchi and Knutson (2008).

Prediction made: 12 May 2014

This webpage last updated: 13 January 2015